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Pinheirense W vs Sport Recife W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Pinheirense W
Pinheirense W
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 2
Sport Recife W
Sport Recife W
7/10/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP A - Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pinheirense W25%
×Draw19%
Sport Recife W57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinheirense W
1.70
Sport Recife W
2.60

Sport Recife W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Pinheirense W
0.43
Sport Recife W
0.78

allows per match

Pinheirense W
4.43
Sport Recife W
2.96

finishing

Pinheirense W+0.00on par
Sport Recife W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinheirense W ↓

Sport Recife W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Pinheirense W or draw
43%
Pinheirense W or Sport Recife W
81%
Draw or Sport Recife W
75%

Winning margin

Pinheirense W wins by 2+
12%
Sport Recife W wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Pinheirense W 1+ goals
82%
Pinheirense W 2+ goals
51%
Pinheirense W 3+ goals
24%
Sport Recife W 1+ goals
92%
Sport Recife W 2+ goals
73%
Sport Recife W 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Pinheirense W (draw refunded)
30%
Sport Recife W (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinheirense W at home — creates 0.43, concedes 4.43 · 7 matches

Sport Recife W away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinheirense W attack 0.43 + Sport Recife W defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sport Recife W attack 0.78 + Pinheirense W defence 4.43 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Pinheirense W scores more
25%
level
19%
Sport Recife W scores more
57%

Sport Recife W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sport Recife W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pinheirense W vs Sport Recife W

Sport Recife W beat Pinheirense W 6-1 in Brasileiro Women on July 10, 2018.