Sport Recife 2–2 Sao Paulo: Result & Stats

Sport Recife

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sao Paulo

Derik Lacerda 50'

Lucas Lima 5'

Maik 90'

Lucas Moura 66'

8/16/2025

Serie A · Round 20Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sport Recife37%

×Draw30%

Sao Paulo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchSao Paulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.03

Sport Recife

1.09

Sao Paulo

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 36 away

0.88

creates per match

0.84

1.23

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Sport Recife

0.88

Sao Paulo

0.84

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.23

Sao Paulo

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Sao Paulo+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Sao Paulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

66%

Sport Recife or Sao Paulo

70%

Draw or Sao Paulo

63%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

15%

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

66%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

30%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

10%

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

64%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

28%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

52%

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.23 · 8 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 0.88 + Sao Paulo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Sao Paulo attack 0.84 + Sport Recife defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sport Recife scores more

37%

level

30%

Sao Paulo scores more

34%

Sport Recife at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Lucas Lima

Sport Recife · M

8.0

Match Events

5'

Lucas Lima

44'

Christian Rivera

46'

Kevyson← Igor Carius

46'

Lucas Moura← Rodriguinho

50'

Derik Lacerda↳ Matheus Alexandre

51'

Derik Lacerda

57'

Andre Silva← J. Dinenno

57'

N. Ferraresi← A. Franco

57'

Henrique Carmo← Ferreira

58'

Maik

66'

Lucas Moura↳ Henrique Carmo

68'

D. Bobadilla← Luan Silva

73'

Pedro Augusto← Matheusinho

74'

Pablo← Derik Lacerda

81'

Kevyson

82'

Chrystian Barletta← Leo Pereira

90+1'

Lucas Lima

90+1'

J. Silva← Lucas Lima

90'

Maik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportSao

Overview

34%Possession66%

8Total Shots18

0.72Expected Goals (xG)1.61

4Corners10

17Fouls19

Shots

8Total Shots18

5On Target8

3Off Target5

0Blocked5

7Inside Box10

1Outside Box8

Passing

34%Possession66%

242Total Passes492

166Accurate Passes420

69%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

-0.71Goals Prevented-0.71

Discipline

17Fouls19

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1