Sao Paulo 1–0 Sport Recife: Result & Stats

Sao Paulo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Recife

Luciano 13'

12/6/2020

Serie A · Round 24Morumbí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sao Paulo46%

×Draw27%

Sport Recife27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao PauloExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.00

Sao Paulo

1.39

Sport Recife

1.00

Sao Paulo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 9 away

1.52

creates per match

1.06

0.94

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sao Paulo

1.52

Sport Recife

1.06

allows per match

Sao Paulo

0.94

Sport Recife

1.26

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.73scores less than expected

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.11scores more

Sport Recife-0.73scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw

73%

Sao Paulo or Sport Recife

73%

Draw or Sport Recife

54%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

22%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

75%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

40%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

16%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

63%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

26%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

63%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.94 · 38 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 1.52 + Sport Recife defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sport Recife attack 1.06 + Sao Paulo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sao Paulo scores more

46%

level

27%

Sport Recife scores more

27%

Sao Paulo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Dani Alves

Sao Paulo · M

8.2

Match Events

13'

34'

35'

43'

46'

Thiago Neves← Iago Maidana

46'

J. Gómez← Ricardinho

53'

Juanfran

60'

Betinho← Ronaldo

64'

Luan Santos

74'

Igor Vinicius← Juanfran

74'

Vitor Bueno← Igor Gomes

75'

Rafael Thyere

79'

Pablo← Luciano

79'

Tchê Tchê← Brenner

83'

Mikael← Marcão

90'

Robert Arboleda

90'

Dani Alves

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaoSport

Overview

63%Possession37%

13Total Shots4

11Corners1

17Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots4

7On Target0

4Off Target4

2Blocked0

7Inside Box2

6Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

641Total Passes378

572Accurate Passes294

89%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls16

4Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3