Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sport Recife vs Sampaio Correa — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Sport Recife
Sport Recife
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sampaio Correa
Sampaio Correa
2/28/2021Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 1Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sport Recife63%
×Draw22%
Sampaio Correa15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife
1.83
Sampaio Correa
0.76

Sport Recife creates 141% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sport Recife
1.78
Sampaio Correa
0.59

allows per match

Sport Recife
0.92
Sampaio Correa
1.88

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par
Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Sampaio Correa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw
85%
Sport Recife or Sampaio Correa
78%
Draw or Sampaio Correa
37%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+
37%
Sampaio Correa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals
84%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
54%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
28%
Sampaio Correa 1+ goals
53%
Sampaio Correa 2+ goals
18%
Sampaio Correa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)
81%
Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.78 + Sampaio Correa defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sampaio Correa attack 0.59 + Sport Recife defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sport Recife scores more
63%
level
22%
Sampaio Correa scores more
15%

Sport Recife at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Sampaio Correa

Sport Recife and Sampaio Correa drew 1-1 in Copa do Nordeste on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Recife, Pernambuco.