Sampaio Correa 4–1 Sport Recife: Result & Stats

Sampaio Correa

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sport Recife

7/23/2022

Serie B · Round 20Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Sampaio Correa42%

×Draw30%

Sport Recife28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampaio CorreaExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.92

Sampaio Correa

1.19

Sport Recife

0.92

Sampaio Correa creates 29% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 84 away

1.36

creates per match

0.89

0.94

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Sampaio Correa

1.36

Sport Recife

0.89

allows per match

Sampaio Correa

0.94

Sport Recife

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw

72%

Sampaio Correa or Sport Recife

70%

Draw or Sport Recife

58%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

18%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

70%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

33%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

12%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

60%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

23%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

60%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 95 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.02 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.36 + Sport Recife defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sport Recife attack 0.89 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more

42%

level

30%

Sport Recife scores more

28%

Sampaio Correa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff