Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta — Serie B 2026

Sport Recife
Sport Recife
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta
7/27/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 18Itaipava Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sport Recife53%
×Draw24%
Ponte Preta23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife
1.68
Ponte Preta
1.03

Sport Recife creates 63% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sport Recife
1.48
Ponte Preta
0.76

allows per match

Sport Recife
1.30
Ponte Preta
1.87

finishing

Sport Recife-0.21scores less
Ponte Preta-0.19scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Ponte Preta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw
77%
Sport Recife or Ponte Preta
76%
Draw or Ponte Preta
47%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+
28%
Ponte Preta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals
81%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
50%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
24%
Ponte Preta 1+ goals
64%
Ponte Preta 2+ goals
28%
Ponte Preta 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)
69%
Ponte Preta (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.87 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.48 + Ponte Preta defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.68

Ponte Preta attack 0.76 + Sport Recife defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sport Recife scores more
53%
level
24%
Ponte Preta scores more
23%

Sport Recife at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta

Sport Recife beat Ponte Preta 3-1 in Serie B on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Pernambuco.