Ponte Preta 1–1 Sport Recife: Result & Stats

Ponte Preta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sport Recife

6/11/2023

Serie B · Round 12Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Ponte Preta40%

×Draw27%

Sport Recife33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponte PretaExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.20

Ponte Preta

1.34

Sport Recife

1.20

Ponte Preta creates 12% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.41

creates per match

1.07

1.32

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Ponte Preta

1.41

Sport Recife

1.07

allows per match

Ponte Preta

1.32

Sport Recife

1.28

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Ponte Preta-0.41scores less

Sport Recife+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw

67%

Ponte Preta or Sport Recife

73%

Draw or Sport Recife

60%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

18%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

74%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

39%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

15%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

70%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

34%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

55%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 10 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.41 + Sport Recife defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sport Recife attack 1.07 + Ponte Preta defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ponte Preta scores more

40%

level

27%

Sport Recife scores more

33%

Ponte Preta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ponte Preta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff