Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sport Recife vs Mirassol — Serie A 2026

Sport Recife
Sport Recife
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mirassol
Mirassol
10/25/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 30Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sport Recife35%
×Draw29%
Mirassol37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife
1.09
Mirassol
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 27 away

creates per match

Sport Recife
0.89
Mirassol
1.04

allows per match

Sport Recife
1.21
Mirassol
1.30

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par
Mirassol+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Mirassol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw
63%
Sport Recife or Mirassol
71%
Draw or Mirassol
65%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+
14%
Mirassol wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals
66%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
30%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
10%
Mirassol 1+ goals
68%
Mirassol 2+ goals
31%
Mirassol 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)
49%
Mirassol (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

Mirassol away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 0.89 + Mirassol defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Mirassol attack 1.04 + Sport Recife defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sport Recife scores more
35%
level
29%
Mirassol scores more
37%

Mirassol at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Mirassol

Mirassol beat Sport Recife 2-1 in Serie A on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Recife.