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Mirassol vs Sport Recife — Serie B 2026

Mirassol
Mirassol
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Recife
Sport Recife
11/3/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 35Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mirassol48%
×Draw31%
Sport Recife21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirassol
1.18
Sport Recife
0.68

Mirassol creates 74% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 84 away

creates per match

Mirassol
1.34
Sport Recife
0.89

allows per match

Mirassol
0.47
Sport Recife
1.02

finishing

Mirassol+0.00on par
Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol ↓

Sport Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mirassol or draw
79%
Mirassol or Sport Recife
69%
Draw or Sport Recife
52%

Winning margin

Mirassol wins by 2+
21%
Sport Recife wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mirassol 1+ goals
69%
Mirassol 2+ goals
33%
Mirassol 3+ goals
12%
Sport Recife 1+ goals
49%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
15%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mirassol (draw refunded)
69%
Sport Recife (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.47 · 38 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.02 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol attack 1.34 + Sport Recife defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sport Recife attack 0.89 + Mirassol defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mirassol scores more
48%
level
31%
Sport Recife scores more
21%

Mirassol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mirassol 2 – 1 Sport Recife

Mirassol beat Sport Recife 2-1 in Serie B on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol, São Paulo.