Sport Recife 2–0 Londrina: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sport Recife

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Londrina

Sander 65'

Rafael Thyere 9'

7/9/2022

Serie B · Round 17Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sport Recife48%

×Draw24%

Londrina28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.20

Sport Recife

1.66

Londrina

1.20

Sport Recife creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.48

creates per match

1.09

1.30

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.48

Londrina

1.09

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.30

Londrina

1.84

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.58scores more than expected

finishing

Sport Recife-0.21scores less

Londrina+0.58scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

72%

Sport Recife or Londrina

76%

Draw or Londrina

52%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

25%

Londrina wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

81%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

49%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

23%

Londrina 1+ goals

70%

Londrina 2+ goals

34%

Londrina 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

63%

Londrina (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Londrina away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.84 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.48 + Londrina defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.66

Londrina attack 1.09 + Sport Recife defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sport Recife scores more

48%

level

24%

Londrina scores more

28%

Sport Recife at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Rafael Thyere

Sport Recife · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

Rafael Thyere↳ Thiago Lopes

17'

Alan← Giovanni

45+1'

Ewerton

45+1'

Douglas Coutinho

46'

Matheus Lucas← Mirandinha

56'

Mailson

57'

Alan

61'

Mossoró← Jhonny Lucas

61'

Gabriel Negueba← Douglas Coutinho

63'

R. Vanegas← J. Parraguez

65'

Sander

70'

Mandaca← Gegé

79'

Pedro Naressi← Thiago Lopes

82'

Eltinho← Alan Ruschel

84'

Samuel Santos

90+3'

Fabinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportLondrina

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots13

2Corners3

17Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots13

3On Target0

6Off Target7

1Blocked6

4Inside Box2

6Outside Box11

Passing

49%Possession51%

445Total Passes461

367Accurate Passes379

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Londrina

Sport Recife beat Londrina 2-0 in Serie B on July 9, 2022.

Goals: Rafael Thyere (9'), Sander (65').

Londrina controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Recife, Pernambuco.

Sport Recife vs Londrina — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Londrina