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Londrina vs Sport Recife — Serie B 2026

Londrina
Londrina
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Recife
Sport Recife
Bruno Santos 22'
Pedro Perotti 87'
Chrystian Barletta 67' (pen)
4/4/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 3Estádio Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Londrina39%
×Draw28%
Sport Recife33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Londrina
1.21
Sport Recife
1.10

Londrina creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Londrina
1.13
Sport Recife
1.07

allows per match

Londrina
1.13
Sport Recife
1.28

finishing

Londrina-0.25scores less
Sport Recife+0.13scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Sport Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Londrina or draw
67%
Londrina or Sport Recife
72%
Draw or Sport Recife
61%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+
17%
Sport Recife wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals
70%
Londrina 2+ goals
34%
Londrina 3+ goals
12%
Sport Recife 1+ goals
67%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
30%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)
54%
Sport Recife (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.13 + Sport Recife defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sport Recife attack 1.07 + Londrina defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Londrina scores more
39%
level
28%
Sport Recife scores more
33%

Londrina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Bruno SantosLondrinaLondrina · F
7.6

Match Events

22'
Bruno Santos
44'
Thalis Cantanhede
46'
Clayson← Ze Lucas
61'
Paulinho Moccelin← Thalis
62'
Marlon Douglas← Yago Felipe
67'
Chrystian BarlettaPenalty
77'
Juninho← Iago Teles
77'
Caio Maia← Vitinho Mota
83'
Chumbinho← Andre Luiz
87'
Pedro Perotti↳ Augusto
88'
de Pena Carlos← Chrystian Barletta
90+2'
Paulinho Moccelin
90+5'
Pedro Martins← Augusto

Possession

38%Londrina

Shots

13Londrina

Pass accuracy

48%Londrina

Statistics

LondrinaSport
Overview
38%Possession62%
13Total Shots16
0.85Expected Goals (xG)2.23
5Corners7
13Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots16
3On Target4
5Off Target7
5Blocked5
8Inside Box9
5Outside Box7
Passing
38%Possession62%
281Total Passes481
223Accurate Passes418
79%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
-0.10Goals Prevented-0.10
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Londrina vs Sport Recife

Sport Recife beat Londrina 2-1 in Serie B on April 4, 2026.

Goals: Bruno Santos (22'), Chrystian Barletta (67' pen), Pedro Perotti (87').

Sport Recife controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio Jacy Scaff in Londrina.