Sport Recife 2–1 Guarani Campinas: Result & Stats

Sport Recife

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Guarani Campinas

Ronaldo 51' (pen)

Denner 5'

Nicolas Careca 90+1'

7/29/2022

Serie B · Round 21Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sport Recife41%

×Draw28%

Guarani Campinas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.08

Sport Recife

1.27

Guarani Campinas

1.08

Sport Recife creates 18% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

1.30

creates per match

0.86

1.30

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.30

Guarani Campinas

0.86

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.30

Guarani Campinas

1.25

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Sport Recife+0.20scores more

Guarani Campinas+0.03on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

69%

Sport Recife or Guarani Campinas

72%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

59%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

18%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

72%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

36%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

14%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

66%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

29%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

56%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.30 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guarani Campinas attack 0.86 + Sport Recife defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sport Recife scores more

41%

level

28%

Guarani Campinas scores more

31%

Sport Recife at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

46

Luciano Juba

Sport Recife · M

7.5

Match Events

5'

Jamerson

5'

Denner↳ Sander

16'

Nicolas CarecaGoal cancelled

21'

Denner Melz

37'

Rodrigo Andrade

46'

Giovanni← Denner

51'

RonaldoPenalty

56'

Madison← Rodrigo Andrade

57'

Yago César← Bruno José

67'

Maxwell← Júlio César

67'

Marcinho← Isaque

69'

Everton Felipe← Thiago Lopes

73'

Sander

75'

Diogo Mateus← Lucas Ramon

78'

Willian Oliveira← Ronaldo

78'

R. Vanegas← Kayke

85'

Bruno Matias← Pedro Naressi

87'

Giovanni

90+1'

Nicolas Careca↳ Jamerson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportGuarani

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots7

6Corners11

11Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots7

4On Target3

5Off Target2

2Blocked2

8Inside Box3

3Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

322Total Passes476

269Accurate Passes409

84%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0

Serie B: Sport Recife 2–1 Guarani Campinas

Sport Recife beat Guarani Campinas 2-1 in Serie B on July 29, 2022.

Goals: Denner (5'), Ronaldo (51' pen), Nicolas Careca (90+1').

Guarani Campinas controlled possession (60%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Recife, Pernambuco.

Sport Recife vs Guarani Campinas — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Sport Recife 2–1 Guarani Campinas