Guarani Campinas 3–1 Sport Recife: Result & Stats

Guarani Campinas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Sport Recife

Matheus Barbosa 35'

Bruninho 10'

Bruno Mendes 5'

Ronaldo 27' (pen)

8/19/2023

Serie B · Round 24Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Guarani Campinas42%

×Draw30%

Sport Recife28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani CampinasExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.88

Guarani Campinas

1.14

Sport Recife

0.88

Guarani Campinas creates 30% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 70 away

1.21

creates per match

0.89

0.87

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Guarani Campinas

1.21

Sport Recife

0.89

allows per match

Guarani Campinas

0.87

Sport Recife

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw

72%

Guarani Campinas or Sport Recife

70%

Draw or Sport Recife

58%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

18%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

68%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

32%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

11%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

59%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

22%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

60%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.87 · 111 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.21 + Sport Recife defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sport Recife attack 0.89 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more

42%

level

30%

Sport Recife scores more

28%

Guarani Campinas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Matheus Barbosa

Guarani Campinas · M

7.7

Match Events

5'

Bruno Mendes

10'

Bruninho↳ João Victor

27'

RonaldoPenalty

35'

Matheus Barbosa↳ Mayk

46'

F. Labandeira← Edinho

46'

Peglow← Victor Gabriel

60'

Fabinho

61'

Fábio Matheus← Fabinho

67'

Wenderson← Bruninho

67'

Bernardo← Lucas Araújo

74'

Caique← Mayk

74'

Derek← Bruno Mendes

74'

A. Ruiz← Ronaldo

76'

76'

82'

84'

85'

Fabrício Daniel← Vágner Love

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuaraniSport

Overview

40%Possession60%

6Total Shots19

3Corners8

12Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots19

5On Target4

1Off Target8

0Blocked7

4Inside Box7

2Outside Box12

Passing

40%Possession60%

368Total Passes546

273Accurate Passes467

74%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1