Sport Recife 0–4 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sport Recife

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Gremio

F. Cristaldo 48'

Gustavo Martins 42'

Carlos Vinicius 31', 29'

12/7/2025

Serie A · Round 38Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sport Recife29%

×Draw25%

Gremio45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.52

Sport Recife

1.17

Gremio

1.52

Gremio creates 30% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 50 away

0.90

creates per match

1.10

1.95

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sport Recife

0.90

Gremio

1.10

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.95

Gremio

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

55%

Sport Recife or Gremio

75%

Draw or Gremio

71%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

12%

Gremio wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

69%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

33%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

11%

Gremio 1+ goals

78%

Gremio 2+ goals

45%

Gremio 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

39%

Gremio (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.44 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 0.90 + Gremio defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Gremio attack 1.10 + Sport Recife defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sport Recife scores more

29%

level

25%

Gremio scores more

45%

Gremio at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Cristaldo

Gremio · M

8.9

Match Events

18'

Pedro Augusto

21'

Alysson

28'

J. Silva← Igor Carius

29'

Carlos Vinicius↳ F. Cristaldo

31'

Carlos Vinicius↳ Edenilson

40'

C. Pavon← Alysson

42'

Gustavo Martins↳ C. Pavon

45+1'

Francis Amuzu

46'

Rafinha← Luan Candido

46'

Leo Pereira← Matheusinho

46'

Willian← F. Amuzu

48'

F. Cristaldo↳ C. Pavon

60'

S. Oliveira← G. Paciencia

60'

Chrystian Barletta← Romarinho

66'

Lucas Esteves← Marlon

66'

Camilo Reijers← Edenilson

76'

Gustavo Cuéllar

77'

Andre Henrique← Carlos Vinicius

80'

Camilo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportGremio

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots13

0.63Expected Goals (xG)1.60

1Corners5

6Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots13

3On Target8

3Off Target2

5Blocked3

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

460Total Passes592

411Accurate Passes552

89%Pass Accuracy93%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.80Goals Prevented0.80

Discipline

6Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2