Gremio 1–2 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie A

Gremio

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Recife

Douglas Costa 85'

Mikael 70'

Gustavo 53'

10/3/2021

Serie A · Round 23Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Gremio56%

×Draw24%

Sport Recife20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.91

Gremio

1.72

Sport Recife

0.91

Gremio creates 89% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 21 away

1.62

creates per match

0.67

1.15

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Gremio

1.62

Sport Recife

0.67

allows per match

Gremio

1.15

Sport Recife

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

80%

Gremio or Sport Recife

76%

Draw or Sport Recife

44%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

31%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

82%

Gremio 2+ goals

51%

Gremio 3+ goals

25%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

60%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

23%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

74%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.62 + Sport Recife defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sport Recife attack 0.67 + Gremio defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gremio scores more

56%

level

24%

Sport Recife scores more

20%

Gremio at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Douglas Costa

Gremio · M

7.6

Match Events

21'

Everton Felipe← Thiago Lopes

46'

J. Campaz← Rafinha

46'

Guedes← Alisson

53'

Gustavo

64'

Diego Souza← M. Borja

64'

Chico← Gustavo

70'

Mikael↳ Everaldo

72'

72'

75'

76'

85'

Douglas Costa↳ Vanderson

90+5'

Mathias Villasanti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioSport

Overview

65%Possession35%

22Total Shots9

11Corners2

21Fouls18

Shots

22Total Shots9

7On Target6

12Off Target3

3Blocked0

9Inside Box2

13Outside Box7

Passing

65%Possession35%

522Total Passes294

456Accurate Passes225

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

21Fouls18

2Yellow Cards1