Sport Recife 4–0 CSA: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sport Recife

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

CSA

Luciano Juba 90+1'

Kayke 45+3'

Giovanni 29'

Sander 25'

8/13/2022

Serie B · Round 24Itaipava Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Sport Recife51%

×Draw27%

CSA22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchCSA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.84

Sport Recife

1.45

CSA

0.84

Sport Recife creates 73% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 67 away

1.80

creates per match

0.88

0.80

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.80

CSA

0.88

allows per match

Sport Recife

0.80

CSA

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par

CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

CSA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

78%

Sport Recife or CSA

73%

Draw or CSA

49%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

26%

CSA wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

77%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

42%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

18%

CSA 1+ goals

57%

CSA 2+ goals

21%

CSA 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

70%

CSA (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 71 matches

CSA away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.80 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.45

CSA attack 0.88 + Sport Recife defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sport Recife scores more

51%

level

27%

CSA scores more

22%

Sport Recife at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

56

Sander

Sport Recife · D

8.5

Match Events

25'

Sander

29'

Giovanni↳ Vágner Love

32'

Lucas Barcellos

33'

LourençoCard upgrade

34'

Lourenço

35'

Élton

45+4'

Kayke Rodrigues

45+3'

Kayke↳ Giovanni

46'

Igor← Jonathan

46'

Ferreira← Douglas

61'

J. Mercado← Lucas Barcelos

74'

B. Cáceres← Fabinho

74'

Chico← Sabino

75'

Wanderson← Giovanni

75'

Gustavo Coutinho← Kayke

77'

R. Vanegas← Vágner Love

78'

Rogério← Gabriel

80'

Rodrigo Rodrigues← Elton

90+1'

Luciano Juba↳ Wanderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportCSA

Overview

69%Possession31%

24Total Shots8

5Corners1

9Fouls2

Shots

24Total Shots8

6On Target0

14Off Target7

4Blocked1

10Inside Box4

14Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

688Total Passes300

614Accurate Passes225

89%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls2

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

Serie B: Sport Recife 4–0 CSA

Sport Recife beat CSA 4-0 in Serie B on August 13, 2022.

Goals: Sander (25'), Giovanni (29'), Kayke (45+3'), Luciano Juba (90+1').

Sport Recife controlled possession (69%) and registered 24 shots to 8.

The match was played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Pernambuco.

Sport Recife vs CSA — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Sport Recife 4–0 CSA