CSA 1–0 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie B

CSA

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Recife

Lourenço 88'

4/30/2022

Serie B · Round 5Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CSA45%

×Draw29%

Sport Recife26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.86

CSA

1.25

Sport Recife

0.86

CSA creates 45% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

1.43

creates per match

0.89

0.84

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

CSA

1.43

Sport Recife

0.89

allows per match

CSA

0.84

Sport Recife

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CSA or draw

74%

CSA or Sport Recife

71%

Draw or Sport Recife

55%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

20%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

71%

CSA 2+ goals

36%

CSA 3+ goals

13%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

58%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

21%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

64%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.43 + Sport Recife defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sport Recife attack 0.89 + CSA defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CSA scores more

45%

level

29%

Sport Recife scores more

26%

CSA at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Diego Renan

CSA · D

8.0

Match Events

-5'

Marco Túlio

17'

R. Vanegas← Bill

23'

Igor

36'

Bruno MezengaGoal cancelled

46'

Bruno Matias← Fabinho

46'

Rodrigão← Kayke

56'

Luciano Juba

59'

Giva← Geovane

59'

Lourenço← Yann Rolim

67'

Jáderson← Pedro Naressi

70'

Didira← Osvaldo

75'

Diego Renan

79'

Lucas Marques← Gabriel

79'

Lucas Barcelos← Dalberto

82'

Chico← L. Hernández

88'

Lourenço

90'

Rodrigão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSASport

Overview

49%Possession51%

21Total Shots5

12Corners0

15Fouls11

Shots

21Total Shots5

9On Target1

8Off Target4

4Blocked0

8Inside Box2

13Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

366Total Passes407

304Accurate Passes340

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

15Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2