Sport Recife 0–1 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sport Recife

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Coritiba

Bruno Melo 61'

8/23/2024

Serie B · Round 22Itaipava Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Sport Recife44%

×Draw26%

Coritiba30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.15

Sport Recife

1.46

Coritiba

1.15

Sport Recife creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

1.30

creates per match

1.00

1.30

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.30

Coritiba

1.00

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.30

Coritiba

1.63

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

Sport Recife+0.20scores more

Coritiba-0.55scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

70%

Sport Recife or Coritiba

74%

Draw or Coritiba

56%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

22%

Coritiba wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

77%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

43%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

18%

Coritiba 1+ goals

68%

Coritiba 2+ goals

32%

Coritiba 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

60%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.30 + Coritiba defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Coritiba attack 1.00 + Sport Recife defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sport Recife scores more

44%

level

26%

Coritiba scores more

30%

Sport Recife at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Matheus Frizzo

Coritiba · M

8.0

Match Events

-5'

Gabriel Leite

31'

Lucas André← L. Di Plácido

46'

C. Ortíz← Lenny Lobato

51'

Gustavo Coutinho

57'

Fabricio Domínguez

61'

Bruno Melo↳ Matheus Frizzo

67'

Zé Roberto← Chrystian Barletta

67'

Chico← Luciano Castán

76'

Wellington Silva← F. Domínguez

80'

Júnior Brumado← Matheus Frizzo

81'

Rodrigo Gelado← Bruno Melo

82'

Lucas Lima

86'

Robson

88'

Maurício Antônio← Robson

90+3'

Christian Ortíz

90+6'

Jhonny← S. Gómez

90+6'

Matheus Bianqui← Lucas Ronier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportCoritiba

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots15

0.82Expected Goals (xG)1.08

7Corners2

16Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots15

2On Target3

7Off Target7

2Blocked5

7Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

414Total Passes307

333Accurate Passes230

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3

Serie B: Sport Recife 0–1 Coritiba

Coritiba beat Sport Recife 1-0 in Serie B on August 23, 2024.

Goals: Bruno Melo (61').

Sport Recife controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Pernambuco.

Sport Recife vs Coritiba — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Sport Recife 0–1 Coritiba