Coritiba 0–1 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie B

Coritiba

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sport Recife

Gustavo Coutinho 21'

5/4/2024

Serie B · Round 3Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Coritiba49%

×Draw27%

Sport Recife24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.90

Coritiba

1.43

Sport Recife

0.90

Coritiba creates 59% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.56

creates per match

0.84

0.96

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Coritiba

1.56

Sport Recife

0.84

allows per match

Coritiba

0.96

Sport Recife

1.30

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Coritiba-0.29scores less

Sport Recife+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

76%

Coritiba or Sport Recife

73%

Draw or Sport Recife

51%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

24%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

76%

Coritiba 2+ goals

42%

Coritiba 3+ goals

17%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

59%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

23%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

68%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.96 · 11 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.30 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.56 + Sport Recife defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sport Recife attack 0.84 + Coritiba defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Coritiba scores more

49%

level

27%

Sport Recife scores more

24%

Coritiba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

Everton Morelli

Coritiba · M

7.9

Match Events

18'

Pedro Lima

21'

Gustavo Coutinho↳ Lucas Lima

29'

Lucas Ronier← Bernardo

37'

Caique Franca

45+2'

Felipinho

46'

Rodrigo Gelado← Jamerson

46'

Wesley Pomba← Figueiredo

46'

A. Ruiz← Romarinho

46'

R. Rosales← Pedro Lima

50'

Wesley Pomba

55'

Gustavo Coutinho

68'

Chico← Chrystian Barletta

69'

Geovane Meurer← S. Gómez

69'

Vinícius Faria← Lucas Lima

75'

Brandão← Everton Morelli

75'

Fábio Matheus← Gustavo Coutinho

77'

87'

90+3'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaSport

Overview

51%Possession49%

21Total Shots8

3Corners3

14Fouls21

Shots

21Total Shots8

6On Target3

13Off Target3

2Blocked2

9Inside Box4

12Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

445Total Passes431

373Accurate Passes336

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls21

3Yellow Cards6

4Offsides1

Serie B: Coritiba 0–1 Sport Recife

Sport Recife beat Coritiba 1-0 in Serie B on May 4, 2024.

Goals: Gustavo Coutinho (21').

Coritiba controlled possession (51%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba, Paraná.

Coritiba vs Sport Recife — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Coritiba 0–1 Sport Recife