Sport Recife 2–1 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sport Recife

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ceara

Wellington Silva 90+4'

Chrystian Barletta 60'

Erick Pulga 78'

10/8/2024

Serie B · Round 30Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Sport Recife44%

×Draw25%

Ceara31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.27

Sport Recife

1.54

Ceara

1.27

Sport Recife creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.54

creates per match

1.22

1.32

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.54

Ceara

1.22

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.32

Ceara

1.54

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Sport Recife-0.14scores less

Ceara-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

69%

Sport Recife or Ceara

75%

Draw or Ceara

56%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

22%

Ceara wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

79%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

45%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

20%

Ceara 1+ goals

72%

Ceara 2+ goals

36%

Ceara 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

58%

Ceara (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.32 · 10 matches

Ceara away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.54 + Ceara defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ceara attack 1.22 + Sport Recife defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sport Recife scores more

44%

level

25%

Ceara scores more

31%

Sport Recife at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Wellington Silva

Sport Recife · M

7.3

Match Events

9'

11'

13'

53'

58'

58'

60'

Chrystian Barletta↳ Lucas Lima

63'

Christian Ortíz

69'

Fabricio Domínguez

70'

F. Barceló← J. Recalde

72'

Wellington Silva← Chrystian Barletta

72'

Gustavo Coutinho← Zé Roberto

72'

Felipinho← Dalbert

78'

Erick Pulga

81'

L. Di Plácido← Igor Cariús

83'

Gustavo Coutinho

84'

Lenny Lobato← F. Domínguez

84'

Richardson← De Lucca

90+6'

Wellington Silva

90+7'

Lucas Rian

90'

Jean Irmer← Saulo Mineiro

90'

Lucas← Aylon

90+4'

Wellington Silva↳ L. Di Plácido

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportCeara

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots15

1.12Expected Goals (xG)1.36

4Corners6

10Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots15

3On Target3

8Off Target7

3Blocked5

7Inside Box9

7Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

333Total Passes308

244Accurate Passes197

73%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls8

6Yellow Cards5

2Offsides5

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Ceara

Sport Recife beat Ceara 2-1 in Serie B on October 8, 2024.

Goals: Chrystian Barletta (60'), Erick Pulga (78'), Wellington Silva (90+4').

Sport Recife controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Recife, Pernambuco.

Sport Recife vs Ceara — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Ceara