Ceara 2–0 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie A

Ceara

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Recife

A. Galeano 61'

Lucas Mugni 10'

5/17/2025

Serie A · Round 9Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Ceara42%

×Draw30%

Sport Recife28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.88

Ceara

1.14

Sport Recife

0.88

Ceara creates 30% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.01

creates per match

1.06

0.69

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Ceara

1.01

Sport Recife

1.06

allows per match

Ceara

0.69

Sport Recife

1.26

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.73scores less than expected

finishing

Ceara+0.09on par

Sport Recife-0.73scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

72%

Ceara or Sport Recife

70%

Draw or Sport Recife

58%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

18%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

68%

Ceara 2+ goals

32%

Ceara 3+ goals

11%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

59%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

22%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

60%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.69 · 10 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.01 + Sport Recife defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sport Recife attack 1.06 + Ceara defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ceara scores more

42%

level

30%

Sport Recife scores more

28%

Ceara at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Fernando Miguel

Ceara · G

7.9

Match Events

10'

11'

21'

45+2'

46'

Lele← Pedro Raul

46'

Dalbert← Igor Carius

46'

S. Oliveira← C. Rivera

61'

A. Galeano↳ Diego

63'

Du Queiroz← Ze Lucas

63'

C. Ortiz← Carlos Alberto

71'

Guilherme Luiz← Pedro Henrique

71'

Romarinho← Chrystian Barletta

77'

77'

78'

83'

85'

Matheus Araujo← A. Galeano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CearaSport

Overview

42%Possession58%

7Total Shots9

0.59Expected Goals (xG)0.65

5Corners8

14Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots9

3On Target4

2Off Target4

2Blocked1

3Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

334Total Passes452

265Accurate Passes379

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-0.72Goals Prevented-0.72

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2