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Sport Recife vs America Mineiro — Serie B 2026

Sport Recife
Sport Recife
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
America Mineiro
America Mineiro
7/13/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 15Itaipava Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Sport Recife41%
×Draw28%
America Mineiro31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife
1.29
America Mineiro
1.08

Sport Recife creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sport Recife
1.48
America Mineiro
0.87

allows per match

Sport Recife
1.30
America Mineiro
1.11

finishing

Sport Recife-0.21scores less
America Mineiro-0.20scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

America Mineiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw
69%
Sport Recife or America Mineiro
72%
Draw or America Mineiro
59%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+
19%
America Mineiro wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals
72%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
37%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
14%
America Mineiro 1+ goals
66%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
29%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)
57%
America Mineiro (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.11 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.48 + America Mineiro defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

America Mineiro attack 0.87 + Sport Recife defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sport Recife scores more
41%
level
28%
America Mineiro scores more
31%

Sport Recife at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs America Mineiro

Sport Recife and America Mineiro drew 1-1 in Serie B on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Pernambuco.