America Mineiro 0–0 Sport Recife: Result & Stats

America Mineiro

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Recife

4/18/2026

Serie B · Round 5Arena Independência

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

America Mineiro40%

×Draw27%

Sport Recife33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.19

America Mineiro

1.35

Sport Recife

1.19

America Mineiro creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

1.07

1.31

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.43

Sport Recife

1.07

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.31

Sport Recife

1.28

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

America Mineiro-0.32scores less

Sport Recife+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

67%

America Mineiro or Sport Recife

73%

Draw or Sport Recife

60%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

19%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

74%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

39%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

15%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

70%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

33%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

55%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 19 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.43 + Sport Recife defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sport Recife attack 1.07 + America Mineiro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

America Mineiro scores more

40%

level

27%

Sport Recife scores more

33%

America Mineiro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Thiago Couto

Sport Recife · G

8.2

Match Events

9'

Augusto Pucci

32'

Iury Castilho

46'

Biel Fonseca← Ze Lucas

46'

Madson← Augusto

51'

Rafael Barcelos

61'

Marlon Douglas← Iury Castilho

62'

Habraao← Marcelo Ajul

74'

Jhonatan Lima← Yago Santos

74'

Paulinho← Dalbert

84'

Ale← M. Segovia

84'

Paulo Victor← Gonzalo Mastriani

84'

Leo Alaba← Felipe Amaral

85'

Madson

90+3'

Zé Gabriel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaSport

Overview

50%Possession50%

17Total Shots9

1.17Expected Goals (xG)0.31

8Corners3

14Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots9

6On Target0

5Off Target5

6Blocked4

8Inside Box2

9Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

317Total Passes323

265Accurate Passes270

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

0.23Goals Prevented0.23

Discipline

14Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0