Sport Recife 1–0 ABC: Result & Stats

Sport Recife

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ABC

3/30/2023

Copa do Nordeste · Semi-finalsEstádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sport Recife52%

×Draw25%

ABC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.01

Sport Recife

1.65

ABC

1.01

Sport Recife creates 63% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

1.78

creates per match

1.09

0.92

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.78

ABC

1.09

allows per match

Sport Recife

0.92

ABC

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

77%

Sport Recife or ABC

75%

Draw or ABC

48%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

28%

ABC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

81%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

49%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

23%

ABC 1+ goals

64%

ABC 2+ goals

27%

ABC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

69%

ABC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

ABC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.78 + ABC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

ABC attack 1.09 + Sport Recife defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sport Recife scores more

52%

level

25%

ABC scores more

23%

Sport Recife at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff