ABC 0–1 Sport Recife: Result & Stats

ABC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Recife

3/29/2026

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

ABC46%

×Draw26%

Sport Recife28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.10

ABC

1.49

Sport Recife

1.10

ABC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

1.77

creates per match

1.21

1.00

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

ABC

1.77

Sport Recife

1.21

allows per match

ABC

1.00

Sport Recife

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

ABC or draw

72%

ABC or Sport Recife

74%

Draw or Sport Recife

54%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

23%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

77%

ABC 2+ goals

44%

ABC 3+ goals

19%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

67%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

30%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

62%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.77 + Sport Recife defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sport Recife attack 1.21 + ABC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ABC scores more

46%

level

26%

Sport Recife scores more

28%

ABC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff