Sport Loreto 2–1 Serrato Pacasmayo: Result & Stats

Sport Loreto

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Serrato Pacasmayo

5/6/2018

Segunda División · Round 5Estadio Municipal Luis Velásquez Salinas (Aguaytia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sport Loreto74%

×Draw14%

Serrato Pacasmayo13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport LoretoExpected goals in this matchSerrato Pacasmayo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.34

1.38

Sport Loreto

3.34

Serrato Pacasmayo

1.38

Sport Loreto creates 142% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

1.68

creates per match

0.79

1.96

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Sport Loreto

1.68

Serrato Pacasmayo

0.79

allows per match

Sport Loreto

1.96

Serrato Pacasmayo

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Loreto ↓

Serrato Pacasmayo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Sport Loreto or draw

87%

Sport Loreto or Serrato Pacasmayo

86%

Draw or Serrato Pacasmayo

26%

Winning margin

Sport Loreto wins by 2+

55%

Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sport Loreto 1+ goals

96%

Sport Loreto 2+ goals

84%

Sport Loreto 3+ goals

63%

Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals

75%

Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals

40%

Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sport Loreto (draw refunded)

85%

Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Loreto at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Serrato Pacasmayo away — creates 0.79, concedes 5.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Loreto attack 1.68 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.34

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.79 + Sport Loreto defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Sport Loreto scores more

74%

level

14%

Serrato Pacasmayo scores more

13%

Sport Loreto at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sport Loreto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff