Serrato Pacasmayo 1–4 Sport Loreto: Result & Stats

Serrato Pacasmayo

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Sport Loreto

8/19/2018

Segunda División · Round 20Estadio Municipal (Pacasmayo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Serrato Pacasmayo33%

×Draw21%

Sport Loreto46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serrato PacasmayoExpected goals in this matchSport Loreto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.08

Serrato Pacasmayo

1.73

Sport Loreto

2.08

Sport Loreto creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

0.86

creates per match

0.96

3.21

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Serrato Pacasmayo

0.86

Sport Loreto

0.96

allows per match

Serrato Pacasmayo

3.21

Sport Loreto

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par

Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serrato Pacasmayo ↓

Sport Loreto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Serrato Pacasmayo or draw

54%

Serrato Pacasmayo or Sport Loreto

79%

Draw or Sport Loreto

67%

Winning margin

Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+

16%

Sport Loreto wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals

82%

Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals

52%

Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals

25%

Sport Loreto 1+ goals

87%

Sport Loreto 2+ goals

61%

Sport Loreto 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)

41%

Sport Loreto (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serrato Pacasmayo at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

Sport Loreto away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.86 + Sport Loreto defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sport Loreto attack 0.96 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Serrato Pacasmayo scores more

33%

level

21%

Sport Loreto scores more

46%

Sport Loreto at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sport Loreto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff