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Sport Loreto vs Santos — Segunda División 2018

Sport Loreto
Sport Loreto
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santos
Santos
5/19/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1Estadio Aliardo Soria Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sport Loreto41%
×Draw24%
Santos35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Loreto
1.61
Santos
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sport Loreto
1.68
Santos
1.02

allows per match

Sport Loreto
1.96
Santos
1.54

finishing

Sport Loreto+0.00on par
Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Loreto ↓

Santos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sport Loreto or draw
65%
Sport Loreto or Santos
76%
Draw or Santos
59%

Winning margin

Sport Loreto wins by 2+
20%
Santos wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sport Loreto 1+ goals
80%
Sport Loreto 2+ goals
48%
Sport Loreto 3+ goals
22%
Santos 1+ goals
77%
Santos 2+ goals
44%
Santos 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sport Loreto (draw refunded)
53%
Santos (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Loreto at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Santos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.54 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Loreto attack 1.68 + Santos defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Santos attack 1.02 + Sport Loreto defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sport Loreto scores more
41%
level
24%
Santos scores more
35%

Sport Loreto at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sport Loreto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Sport Loreto 0–1 Santos

Santos beat Sport Loreto 1-0 in Segunda División on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Aliardo Soria Pérez in Pucallpa.