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Santos vs Sport Loreto — Segunda División 2018

Santos
Santos
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Loreto
Sport Loreto
9/1/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal de Nasca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Santos63%
×Draw20%
Sport Loreto17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos
2.08
Sport Loreto
0.98

Santos creates 112% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 25 away

creates per match

Santos
1.56
Sport Loreto
0.96

allows per match

Santos
1.00
Sport Loreto
2.60

finishing

Santos+0.00on par
Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Sport Loreto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Santos or draw
83%
Santos or Sport Loreto
80%
Draw or Sport Loreto
37%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+
39%
Sport Loreto wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals
87%
Santos 2+ goals
61%
Santos 3+ goals
34%
Sport Loreto 1+ goals
62%
Sport Loreto 2+ goals
26%
Sport Loreto 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)
79%
Sport Loreto (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 80 matches

Sport Loreto away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.56 + Sport Loreto defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.08

Sport Loreto attack 0.96 + Santos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Santos scores more
63%
level
20%
Sport Loreto scores more
17%

Santos at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santos vs Sport Loreto

Santos beat Sport Loreto 3-0 in Segunda División on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Nasca in Nazca.