Sport Loreto 2–2 Deportivo Hualgayoc

Sport Loreto

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Hualgayoc

7/22/2018

Segunda División · Round 16Estadio Aliardo Soria Pérez (Pucallpa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sport Loreto39%

×Draw23%

Deportivo Hualgayoc38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport LoretoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Hualgayoc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.69

Sport Loreto

1.73

Deportivo Hualgayoc

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

1.68

creates per match

1.43

1.96

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Sport Loreto

1.68

Deportivo Hualgayoc

1.43

allows per match

Sport Loreto

1.96

Deportivo Hualgayoc

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Loreto ↓

Deportivo Hualgayoc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sport Loreto or draw

62%

Sport Loreto or Deportivo Hualgayoc

77%

Draw or Deportivo Hualgayoc

61%

Winning margin

Sport Loreto wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sport Loreto 1+ goals

82%

Sport Loreto 2+ goals

52%

Sport Loreto 3+ goals

25%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals

82%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals

50%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Sport Loreto (draw refunded)

51%

Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Loreto at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Loreto attack 1.68 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 1.43 + Sport Loreto defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sport Loreto scores more

39%

level

23%

Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more

38%

Sport Loreto at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sport Loreto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff