Deportivo Hualgayoc 4–1 Sport Loreto

Deportivo Hualgayoc

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sport Loreto

4/8/2018

Segunda División · Round 1Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc68%

×Draw18%

Sport Loreto14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo HualgayocExpected goals in this matchSport Loreto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.95

Deportivo Hualgayoc

2.33

Sport Loreto

0.95

Deportivo Hualgayoc creates 145% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

2.07

creates per match

0.96

0.93

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc

2.07

Sport Loreto

0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc

0.93

Sport Loreto

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par

Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Hualgayoc ↓

Sport Loreto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Deportivo Hualgayoc or draw

86%

Deportivo Hualgayoc or Sport Loreto

82%

Draw or Sport Loreto

32%

Winning margin

Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+

45%

Sport Loreto wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals

90%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals

67%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals

41%

Sport Loreto 1+ goals

61%

Sport Loreto 2+ goals

25%

Sport Loreto 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)

83%

Sport Loreto (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Hualgayoc at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Sport Loreto away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 2.07 + Sport Loreto defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.33

Sport Loreto attack 0.96 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more

68%

level

18%

Sport Loreto scores more

14%

Deportivo Hualgayoc at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Deportivo Hualgayoc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff