Sport Loreto 3–0 Comerciantes Unidos

Sport Loreto

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Comerciantes Unidos

9/22/2019

Segunda División · Round 15Estadio Aliardo Soria Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sport Loreto41%

×Draw23%

Comerciantes Unidos36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport LoretoExpected goals in this matchComerciantes Unidos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.56

Sport Loreto

1.69

Comerciantes Unidos

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 53 away

1.68

creates per match

1.17

1.96

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Sport Loreto

1.68

Comerciantes Unidos

1.17

allows per match

Sport Loreto

1.96

Comerciantes Unidos

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Loreto ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sport Loreto or draw

64%

Sport Loreto or Comerciantes Unidos

77%

Draw or Comerciantes Unidos

59%

Winning margin

Sport Loreto wins by 2+

21%

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sport Loreto 1+ goals

82%

Sport Loreto 2+ goals

50%

Sport Loreto 3+ goals

24%

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

79%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

46%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sport Loreto (draw refunded)

54%

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Loreto at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Loreto attack 1.68 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.17 + Sport Loreto defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sport Loreto scores more

41%

level

23%

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

36%

Sport Loreto at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sport Loreto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff