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Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Loreto — Segunda División 2018

Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Loreto
Sport Loreto
6/9/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos64%
×Draw19%
Sport Loreto17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes Unidos
2.29
Sport Loreto
1.08

Comerciantes Unidos creates 112% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 25 away

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.98
Sport Loreto
0.96

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.21
Sport Loreto
2.60

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par
Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Sport Loreto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw
83%
Comerciantes Unidos or Sport Loreto
81%
Draw or Sport Loreto
36%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
41%
Sport Loreto wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
90%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
66%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
40%
Sport Loreto 1+ goals
66%
Sport Loreto 2+ goals
29%
Sport Loreto 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
79%
Sport Loreto (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 52 matches

Sport Loreto away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.98 + Sport Loreto defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.29

Sport Loreto attack 0.96 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more
64%
level
19%
Sport Loreto scores more
17%

Comerciantes Unidos at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Comerciantes Unidos 2–1 Sport Loreto

Comerciantes Unidos beat Sport Loreto 2-1 in Segunda División on June 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra in Cutervo.