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Sport Loreto vs Cienciano — Segunda División 2018

Sport Loreto
Sport Loreto
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cienciano
Cienciano
9/16/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 25Estadio Aliardo Soria Pérez (Pucallpa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sport Loreto35%
×Draw22%
Cienciano43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Loreto
1.66
Cienciano
1.88

Cienciano creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sport Loreto
1.68
Cienciano
1.79

allows per match

Sport Loreto
1.96
Cienciano
1.64

finishing

Sport Loreto+0.00on par
Cienciano+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Loreto ↓

Cienciano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sport Loreto or draw
57%
Sport Loreto or Cienciano
78%
Draw or Cienciano
65%

Winning margin

Sport Loreto wins by 2+
17%
Cienciano wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sport Loreto 1+ goals
81%
Sport Loreto 2+ goals
49%
Sport Loreto 3+ goals
23%
Cienciano 1+ goals
85%
Cienciano 2+ goals
56%
Cienciano 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sport Loreto (draw refunded)
44%
Cienciano (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Loreto at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Loreto attack 1.68 + Cienciano defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cienciano attack 1.79 + Sport Loreto defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sport Loreto scores more
35%
level
22%
Cienciano scores more
43%

Cienciano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Loreto vs Cienciano

Cienciano beat Sport Loreto 1-0 in Segunda División on September 16, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Aliardo Soria Pérez (Pucallpa).