Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cienciano vs Sport Loreto — Segunda División 2018

Cienciano
Cienciano
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Sport Loreto
Sport Loreto
7/28/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Cienciano77%
×Draw14%
Sport Loreto9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
2.75
Sport Loreto
0.82

Cienciano creates 235% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cienciano
2.89
Sport Loreto
0.96

allows per match

Cienciano
0.68
Sport Loreto
2.60

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par
Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Sport Loreto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
91%
Cienciano or Sport Loreto
86%
Draw or Sport Loreto
23%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
56%
Sport Loreto wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
93%
Cienciano 2+ goals
75%
Cienciano 3+ goals
51%
Sport Loreto 1+ goals
56%
Sport Loreto 2+ goals
20%
Sport Loreto 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
90%
Sport Loreto (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

Sport Loreto away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 2.89 + Sport Loreto defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.75

Sport Loreto attack 0.96 + Cienciano defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Cienciano scores more
77%
level
14%
Sport Loreto scores more
9%

Cienciano at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cienciano vs Sport Loreto

Cienciano beat Sport Loreto 4-2 in Segunda División on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.