Sport Loreto 1–2 Carlos A. Mannucci: Result & Stats

Sport Loreto

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Carlos A. Mannucci

8/26/2018

Segunda División · Round 21Estadio Aliardo Soria Pérez (Pucallpa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sport Loreto37%

×Draw24%

Carlos A. Mannucci39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport LoretoExpected goals in this matchCarlos A. Mannucci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.59

Sport Loreto

1.55

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 30 away

1.68

creates per match

1.23

1.96

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Sport Loreto

1.68

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.23

allows per match

Sport Loreto

1.96

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Loreto ↓

Carlos A. Mannucci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sport Loreto or draw

61%

Sport Loreto or Carlos A. Mannucci

76%

Draw or Carlos A. Mannucci

63%

Winning margin

Sport Loreto wins by 2+

18%

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sport Loreto 1+ goals

79%

Sport Loreto 2+ goals

46%

Sport Loreto 3+ goals

20%

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals

80%

Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals

47%

Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sport Loreto (draw refunded)

49%

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Loreto at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Carlos A. Mannucci away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Loreto attack 1.68 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.23 + Sport Loreto defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sport Loreto scores more

37%

level

24%

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more

39%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff