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Carlos A. Mannucci vs Sport Loreto — Segunda División 2018

Carlos A. Mannucci
Carlos A. Mannucci
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Loreto
Sport Loreto
5/12/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 6Estadio Municipal de Casa Grande (Casagrande)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci70%
×Draw16%
Sport Loreto13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos A. Mannucci
2.63
Sport Loreto
1.06

Carlos A. Mannucci creates 148% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
2.67
Sport Loreto
0.96

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.17
Sport Loreto
2.60

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par
Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

Sport Loreto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw
87%
Carlos A. Mannucci or Sport Loreto
84%
Draw or Sport Loreto
30%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+
49%
Sport Loreto wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals
93%
Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals
73%
Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals
48%
Sport Loreto 1+ goals
65%
Sport Loreto 2+ goals
29%
Sport Loreto 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)
84%
Sport Loreto (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Sport Loreto away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 2.67 + Sport Loreto defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.63

Sport Loreto attack 0.96 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more
70%
level
16%
Sport Loreto scores more
13%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlos A. Mannucci vs Sport Loreto

Carlos A. Mannucci beat Sport Loreto 1-0 in Segunda División on May 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Casa Grande (Casagrande).