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Sport Loreto vs Atletico Grau — Segunda División 2018

Sport Loreto
Sport Loreto
FT
3 – 6
HT: 2 – 2
Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
8/18/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10Estadio Aliardo Soria Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sport Loreto42%
×Draw22%
Atletico Grau36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Loreto
1.80
Atletico Grau
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 40 away

creates per match

Sport Loreto
1.68
Atletico Grau
1.35

allows per match

Sport Loreto
1.96
Atletico Grau
1.93

finishing

Sport Loreto+0.00on par
Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Loreto ↓

Atletico Grau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sport Loreto or draw
64%
Sport Loreto or Atletico Grau
78%
Draw or Atletico Grau
58%

Winning margin

Sport Loreto wins by 2+
22%
Atletico Grau wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sport Loreto 1+ goals
83%
Sport Loreto 2+ goals
54%
Sport Loreto 3+ goals
27%
Atletico Grau 1+ goals
81%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
49%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sport Loreto (draw refunded)
54%
Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Loreto at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.93 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Loreto attack 1.68 + Atletico Grau defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.80

Atletico Grau attack 1.35 + Sport Loreto defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sport Loreto scores more
42%
level
22%
Atletico Grau scores more
36%

Sport Loreto at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sport Loreto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Sport Loreto 3–6 Atletico Grau

Atletico Grau beat Sport Loreto 6-3 in Segunda División on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Aliardo Soria Pérez in Pucallpa.