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Atletico Grau vs Sport Loreto — Segunda División 2018

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sport Loreto
Sport Loreto
11/3/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Estadio Municipal de Bernal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Atletico Grau75%
×Draw15%
Sport Loreto10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
2.70
Sport Loreto
0.89

Atletico Grau creates 203% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 25 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
2.79
Sport Loreto
0.96

allows per match

Atletico Grau
0.82
Sport Loreto
2.60

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Sport Loreto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
90%
Atletico Grau or Sport Loreto
85%
Draw or Sport Loreto
25%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
54%
Sport Loreto wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
93%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
75%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
50%
Sport Loreto 1+ goals
59%
Sport Loreto 2+ goals
22%
Sport Loreto 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
88%
Sport Loreto (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Sport Loreto away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 2.79 + Sport Loreto defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.70

Sport Loreto attack 0.96 + Atletico Grau defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
75%
level
15%
Sport Loreto scores more
10%

Atletico Grau at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Atletico Grau 4–1 Sport Loreto

Atletico Grau beat Sport Loreto 4-1 in Segunda División on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Bernal in Humay.