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Sport Huancayo vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
Preview
20:00
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
9/19/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 10Estadio Huancayo
Big match
52%
Sport Huancayo
model favours
52%25%23%

UTC Cajamarca score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Sport Huancayo52%
×Draw25%
UTC Cajamarca23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Huancayo
1.63
UTC Cajamarca
1.00

Sport Huancayo creates 63% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 144 away

creates per match

Sport Huancayo
1.64
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

Sport Huancayo
1.08
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw
77%
Sport Huancayo or UTC Cajamarca
75%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
48%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
28%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
80%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
48%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
22%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
63%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
26%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
69%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.08 · 145 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.64 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more
52%
level
25%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
23%

Sport Huancayo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sport Huancayo score first in only 23% of matches
  • Sport Huancayo have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in 85% of Sport Huancayo’s matches
  • 56% of Sport Huancayo’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Sport Huancayo have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Sport Huancayo
Balanced
UTC Cajamarca
Balanced
49%Possession47%
80%Pass accuracy75%
11.8Shots12.0
1.67xGBiggest gap1.03
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sport HuancayoUTC Cajamarca

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Sport Huancayo
5
Draws
0
UTC Cajamarca
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 50%
2–23–01–01–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Huancayo
WWWDL
Cajamarca
WWDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sport Huancayo host UTC Cajamarca

September 19, 2026: Sport Huancayo take on UTC Cajamarca in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sport Huancayo host UTC Cajamarca at Estadio Huancayo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.