Sport Huancayo 1–0 Sport Boys: Result & Stats

Sport Huancayo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Boys

5/18/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 13Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Sport Huancayo55%

×Draw24%

Sport Boys21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport HuancayoExpected goals in this matchSport Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.97

Sport Huancayo

1.71

Sport Boys

0.97

Sport Huancayo creates 76% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 145 away

1.64

creates per match

0.86

1.08

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Sport Huancayo

1.64

Sport Boys

0.86

allows per match

Sport Huancayo

1.08

Sport Boys

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Sport Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw

79%

Sport Huancayo or Sport Boys

76%

Draw or Sport Boys

45%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

30%

Sport Boys wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

82%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

51%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

24%

Sport Boys 1+ goals

62%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

25%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

72%

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.08 · 145 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.77 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.64 + Sport Boys defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sport Boys attack 0.86 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more

55%

level

24%

Sport Boys scores more

21%

Sport Huancayo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff