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Sport Boys vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2026

Sport Boys
Sport Boys
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
10/5/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Sport Boys43%
×Draw27%
Sport Huancayo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Boys
1.40
Sport Huancayo
1.14

Sport Boys creates 23% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 147 away

creates per match

Sport Boys
1.30
Sport Huancayo
1.05

allows per match

Sport Boys
1.23
Sport Huancayo
1.50

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw
69%
Sport Boys or Sport Huancayo
73%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
57%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+
20%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals
75%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
41%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
17%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
68%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
32%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)
58%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 145 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.30 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sport Huancayo attack 1.05 + Sport Boys defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sport Boys scores more
43%
level
27%
Sport Huancayo scores more
31%

Sport Boys at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Boys vs Sport Huancayo

Sport Boys beat Sport Huancayo 2-1 in Primera División on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau in Callao.