Sport Huancayo 3–1 Deportivo Binacional

Sport Huancayo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Binacional

Alfredo Rojas 88'

R. Gómez 67'

C. Escobar 50'

M. Quina 7'

9/3/2023

Primera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sport Huancayo58%

×Draw21%

Deportivo Binacional21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport HuancayoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Binacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.12

Sport Huancayo

2.03

Deportivo Binacional

1.12

Sport Huancayo creates 81% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.54

creates per match

1.11

1.13

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Sport Huancayo

1.54

Deportivo Binacional

1.11

allows per match

Sport Huancayo

1.13

Deportivo Binacional

2.52

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.38scores more

Deportivo Binacional-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Deportivo Binacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw

79%

Sport Huancayo or Deportivo Binacional

79%

Draw or Deportivo Binacional

42%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

35%

Deportivo Binacional wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

87%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

60%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

33%

Deportivo Binacional 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Binacional 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Binacional 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

74%

Deportivo Binacional (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

Deportivo Binacional away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.54 + Deportivo Binacional defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.03

Deportivo Binacional attack 1.11 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more

58%

level

21%

Deportivo Binacional scores more

21%

Sport Huancayo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

R. Gómez

Sport Huancayo · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

M. Quina

32'

Rodrigo Colombo

34'

Rodrigo ColomboCard reviewed

37'

Orlando Nuñez

46'

M. Lliuya← L. Villar

50'

C. Escobar

55'

B. Palacios← O. Núñez

63'

67'

74'

77'

78'

Alfredo Rojas← L. Benítes

82'

J. Cirilo← L. Mifflin

82'

H. Crespo← H. Zeta

83'

Á. Pérez← C. Escobar

88'

Alfredo Rojas↳ M. Lliuya

90+5'

Edson Aubert

90+4'

Edson AubertRed card cancelled

90'

Alexis Rojas← R. Gómez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportDeportivo

Overview

63%Possession37%

34Total Shots2

13Corners0

12Fouls13

Shots

34Total Shots2

12On Target1

14Off Target1

8Blocked0

14Inside Box1

20Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

479Total Passes290

426Accurate Passes217

89%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves9

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0

Primera División: Sport Huancayo 3–1 Deportivo Binacional

Sport Huancayo beat Deportivo Binacional 3-1 in Primera División on September 3, 2023.

Goals: M. Quina (7'), C. Escobar (50'), R. Gómez (67'), Alfredo Rojas (88').

Sport Huancayo controlled possession (63%) and registered 34 shots to 2.

The match was played at Estadio Huancayo in Huancayo.

Sport Huancayo vs Deportivo Binacional — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Sport Huancayo 3–1 Deportivo Binacional