Sport Huancayo 1–0 Deportivo Binacional

Sport Huancayo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Binacional

V. Perlaza 64'

10/10/2022

Primera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sport Huancayo58%

×Draw21%

Deportivo Binacional21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport HuancayoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Binacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.12

Sport Huancayo

2.03

Deportivo Binacional

1.12

Sport Huancayo creates 81% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.54

creates per match

1.11

1.13

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Sport Huancayo

1.54

Deportivo Binacional

1.11

allows per match

Sport Huancayo

1.13

Deportivo Binacional

2.52

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.38scores more

Deportivo Binacional-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Deportivo Binacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw

79%

Sport Huancayo or Deportivo Binacional

79%

Draw or Deportivo Binacional

42%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

35%

Deportivo Binacional wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

87%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

60%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

33%

Deportivo Binacional 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Binacional 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Binacional 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

74%

Deportivo Binacional (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

Deportivo Binacional away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.54 + Deportivo Binacional defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.03

Deportivo Binacional attack 1.11 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more

58%

level

21%

Deportivo Binacional scores more

21%

Sport Huancayo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

A. Zamudio

Sport Huancayo · G

8.2

Match Events

15'

24'

30'

36'

46'

52'

64'

69'

69'

J. Carranza← Y. Gamero

71'

72'

72'

77'

77'

D. Morales← L. Benítes

85'

J. de la Cruz← J. Durán

85'

E. Payé← A. Polar

87'

R. Huaccha← V. Perlaza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportDeportivo

Overview

58%Possession42%

23Total Shots18

9Corners6

15Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots18

8On Target7

10Off Target9

5Blocked2

11Inside Box8

12Outside Box10

Passing

58%Possession42%

509Total Passes368

443Accurate Passes297

87%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

8Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls9

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3

Primera División: Sport Huancayo 1–0 Deportivo Binacional

Sport Huancayo beat Deportivo Binacional 1-0 in Primera División on October 10, 2022.

Goals: V. Perlaza (64').

Sport Huancayo controlled possession (58%) and registered 23 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Huancayo in Huancayo.

Sport Huancayo vs Deportivo Binacional — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Sport Huancayo 1–0 Deportivo Binacional