Sport Huancayo 4–2 Comerciantes Unidos

Sport Huancayo

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Comerciantes Unidos

4/20/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 9Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Sport Huancayo57%

×Draw23%

Comerciantes Unidos20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport HuancayoExpected goals in this matchComerciantes Unidos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.99

Sport Huancayo

1.81

Comerciantes Unidos

0.99

Sport Huancayo creates 83% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 63 away

1.64

creates per match

0.89

1.08

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Sport Huancayo

1.64

Comerciantes Unidos

0.89

allows per match

Sport Huancayo

1.08

Comerciantes Unidos

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw

80%

Sport Huancayo or Comerciantes Unidos

77%

Draw or Comerciantes Unidos

43%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

32%

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

84%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

54%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

27%

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

63%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

26%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

73%

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.08 · 145 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.64 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.81

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more

57%

level

23%

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

20%

Sport Huancayo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff