Comerciantes Unidos 2–0 Sport Huancayo

Comerciantes Unidos

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Huancayo

9/17/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 9Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos40%

×Draw27%

Sport Huancayo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comerciantes UnidosExpected goals in this matchSport Huancayo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.17

Comerciantes Unidos

1.32

Sport Huancayo

1.17

Comerciantes Unidos creates 13% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 147 away

1.14

creates per match

1.05

1.29

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.14

Sport Huancayo

1.05

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.29

Sport Huancayo

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Sport Huancayo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw

67%

Comerciantes Unidos or Sport Huancayo

73%

Draw or Sport Huancayo

60%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

18%

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

73%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

38%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

15%

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

69%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

33%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

55%

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.14 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sport Huancayo attack 1.05 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

40%

level

27%

Sport Huancayo scores more

33%

Comerciantes Unidos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff