Sport Huancayo 3–1 Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Sport Huancayo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

R. Huaccha 90+10' (pen)

L. Cano 87' (pen)

J. Deza 12'

J. Manzaneda 21'

9/23/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Sport Huancayo56%

×Draw23%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport HuancayoExpected goals in this matchClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.98

Sport Huancayo

1.79

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.98

Sport Huancayo creates 83% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 43 away

1.75

creates per match

0.86

1.09

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Sport Huancayo

1.75

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.86

allows per match

Sport Huancayo

1.09

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw

79%

Sport Huancayo or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

77%

Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

44%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

32%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

83%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

53%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

26%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

62%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

26%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

73%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.84 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.75 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.79

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 0.86 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more

56%

level

23%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

21%

Sport Huancayo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Cano

Sport Huancayo · F

8.3

Match Events

12'

J. Deza↳ M. Quina

21'

J. Manzaneda↳ C. López

24'

José Miguel ManzanedaGoal confirmed

28'

31'

36'

45+1'

45+1'

53'

Marcos LliuyaGoal cancelled

57'

Ángel Pérez

67'

L. Garro← Á. Pérez

67'

R. Huaccha← E. Villar

69'

M. Ruidías← C. López

74'

O. Takeuchi← E. Mogollón

80'

Diego Carabaño

80'

L. Benítes← J. Deza

83'

A. Quintana← A. Chávez

83'

A. Robles← D. Carabaño

83'

G. Sánchez← J. Manzaneda

87'

L. CanoPenalty

90'

Otávio Gut← C. Ross

90+10'

R. HuacchaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportClub

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots8

5Corners2

9Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots8

3On Target1

12Off Target5

3Blocked2

11Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

430Total Passes283

375Accurate Passes211

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

5Offsides1

Primera División: Sport Huancayo 3–1 Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Sport Huancayo beat Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3-1 in Primera División on September 23, 2024.

Goals: J. Deza (12'), J. Manzaneda (21'), L. Cano (87' pen), R. Huaccha (90+10' pen).

Sport Huancayo controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Huancayo in Huancayo.

Sport Huancayo vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — Primera División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Sport Huancayo 3–1 Club Deportivo Los Chankas