Sport Huancayo 1–2 Cienciano: Result & Stats

Sport Huancayo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Cienciano

L. Cano 6'

J. Estrada 90+1'

P. Fuentes 62'

4/12/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Sport Huancayo43%

×Draw26%

Cienciano31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport HuancayoExpected goals in this matchCienciano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.21

Sport Huancayo

1.48

Cienciano

1.21

Sport Huancayo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.54

creates per match

1.29

1.13

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Sport Huancayo

1.54

Cienciano

1.29

allows per match

Sport Huancayo

1.13

Cienciano

1.41

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.38scores more

Cienciano+0.02on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Cienciano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw

69%

Sport Huancayo or Cienciano

74%

Draw or Cienciano

57%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

21%

Cienciano wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

77%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

43%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

19%

Cienciano 1+ goals

70%

Cienciano 2+ goals

34%

Cienciano 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

58%

Cienciano (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.54 + Cienciano defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cienciano attack 1.29 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more

43%

level

26%

Cienciano scores more

31%

Sport Huancayo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

C. Torrejón

Cienciano · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

6'

20'

21'

22'

46'

46'

46'

58'

62'

69'

69'

75'

79'

A. Lecaros← D. La Torre

88'

90+4'

90+4'

90+4'

90+4'

90+4'

90+6'

J. Portales← G. Ritacco

90+1'

J. Estrada↳ C. Torrejón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportCienciano

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots14

3Corners9

10Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots14

3On Target3

7Off Target7

1Blocked4

5Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

288Total Passes364

224Accurate Passes302

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

4Offsides2

Primera División: Sport Huancayo 1–2 Cienciano

Cienciano beat Sport Huancayo 2-1 in Primera División on April 12, 2024.

Goals: L. Cano (6'), P. Fuentes (62'), J. Estrada (90+1').

Cienciano controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Huancayo in Huancayo.

Sport Huancayo vs Cienciano — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Sport Huancayo 1–2 Cienciano