Cienciano 3–1 Sport Huancayo: Result & Stats

Cienciano

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sport Huancayo

R. Palomino 84'

C. Garcés 39'

C. Torrejón 19'

M. Quina 72'

9/18/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Cienciano60%

×Draw22%

Sport Huancayo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiencianoExpected goals in this matchSport Huancayo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.88

Cienciano

1.86

Sport Huancayo

0.88

Cienciano creates 111% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.86

creates per match

0.89

0.87

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Cienciano

1.86

Sport Huancayo

0.89

allows per match

Cienciano

0.87

Sport Huancayo

1.86

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Cienciano+0.06on par

Sport Huancayo-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Sport Huancayo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw

83%

Cienciano or Sport Huancayo

78%

Draw or Sport Huancayo

40%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+

35%

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals

84%

Cienciano 2+ goals

55%

Cienciano 3+ goals

28%

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

59%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

22%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)

78%

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.87 · 13 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.86 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sport Huancayo attack 0.89 + Cienciano defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cienciano scores more

60%

level

22%

Sport Huancayo scores more

17%

Cienciano at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

C. Torrejón

Cienciano · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

C. Torrejón↳ A. Ramúa

39'

C. Garcés↳ J. Estrada

46'

R. Palomino← A. Ramírez

50'

Rudy Palomino

61'

Minzun Quina

64'

C. Cueva← A. Ramúa

64'

D. La Torre← G. Ritacco

72'

72'

81'

84'

86'

P. Ibáñez← J. Romagnoli

88'

L. Benítes← C. Ross

89'

A. Rodríguez← C. Garcés

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CiencianoSport

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots11

4Corners4

10Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target7

4Off Target1

1Blocked3

4Inside Box4

5Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

235Total Passes335

193Accurate Passes297

82%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Primera División: Cienciano 3–1 Sport Huancayo

Cienciano beat Sport Huancayo 3-1 in Primera División on September 18, 2024.

Goals: C. Torrejón (19'), C. Garcés (39'), M. Quina (72'), R. Palomino (84').

Sport Huancayo controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.

Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Cienciano 3–1 Sport Huancayo