Sport Huancayo 1–0 Cesar Vallejo: Result & Stats

Sport Huancayo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cesar Vallejo

7/30/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Sport Huancayo48%

×Draw26%

Cesar Vallejo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport HuancayoExpected goals in this matchCesar Vallejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.04

Sport Huancayo

1.50

Cesar Vallejo

1.04

Sport Huancayo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 99 away

1.64

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sport Huancayo

1.64

Cesar Vallejo

1.00

allows per match

Sport Huancayo

1.08

Cesar Vallejo

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Cesar Vallejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw

74%

Sport Huancayo or Cesar Vallejo

74%

Draw or Cesar Vallejo

52%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

24%

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

78%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

44%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

19%

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

65%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

28%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

65%

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.08 · 145 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.36 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.64 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.00 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more

48%

level

26%

Cesar Vallejo scores more

26%

Sport Huancayo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff